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Kerrie L. Holley & Siupo Becker, M.D. AI-First Healthcare AI Applications in the Business and Clinical Management of Health
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Kerrie L. Holley and Siupo Becker, M.D. AI-First Healthcare AI Applications in the Business and Clinical Management of Health Boston Farnham Sebastopol TokyoBeijing
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978-1-492-06315-5 [LSI] AI-First Healthcare by Kerrie L. Holley and Siupo Becker, M.D. Copyright © 2021 Kerrie L. Holley and Siupo Becker. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Published by O’Reilly Media, Inc., 1005 Gravenstein Highway North, Sebastopol, CA 95472. O’Reilly books may be purchased for educational, business, or sales promotional use. Online editions are also available for most titles (http://oreilly.com). For more information, contact our corporate/institutional sales department: 800-998-9938 or corporate@oreilly.com. Acquisitions Editor: Michelle Smith Development Editor: Melissa Potter Production Editor: Kristen Brown Copyeditor: Arthur Johnson Proofreader: Holly Bauer Forsyth Indexer: WordCo Indexing Services, Inc. Interior Designer: David Futato Cover Designer: Karen Montgomery Illustrator: Kate Dullea April 2021: First Edition Revision History for the First Edition 2021-04-19: First Release See http://oreilly.com/catalog/errata.csp?isbn=9781492063155 for release details. The O’Reilly logo is a registered trademark of O’Reilly Media, Inc. AI-First Healthcare, the cover image, and related trade dress are trademarks of O’Reilly Media, Inc. The views expressed in this work are those of the authors, and do not represent the publisher’s views. While the publisher and the authors have used good faith efforts to ensure that the information and instructions contained in this work are accurate, the publisher and the authors disclaim all responsibility for errors or omissions, including without limitation responsibility for damages resulting from the use of or reliance on this work. Use of the information and instructions contained in this work is at your own risk. If any code samples or other technology this work contains or describes is subject to open source licenses or the intellectual property rights of others, it is your responsibility to ensure that your use thereof complies with such licenses and/or rights.
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Table of Contents Preface. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi 1. Myths and Realities of AI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 AI Origins and Definition 2 AI and Machine Learning 4 AI Transitions 11 AI—A General Purpose Technology 15 AI Healthcare Myths 17 Myth: AI Will Cure Disease 21 Myth: AI Will Replace Doctors 25 Myth: AI Will Fix the “Healthcare Problem” 27 Myth: AI Will Decrease Healthcare Costs 29 AI Myths 33 Myth: AI Is an Existential Threat 34 Myth: AI Is Just Machine Learning 35 Myth: AI Overpromises and Underdelivers 36 Myth: True Conversational AI Already Exists 37 Myth: AI as Overlord 38 AI Technology Myths 39 Myth: AI Algorithms Are Biased 40 Myth: AI Sees, Hears, and Thinks 40 Myth: AI Diagnoses Diseases Better Than Doctors 41 Myth: AI Systems Learn from Data 43 Myth: AI Is a Black Box 43 Myth: AI Is Modeled After the Brain 45 AI-First Healthcare 45 iii
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2. Human-Centered AI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Toward Human-Centered AI 49 AI Centaur Health 50 Human-Centered AI 53 Intersection of AI and Humans 54 AI and Human Sociocultural Values 58 AI Understanding Humans 61 Humans Understanding AI 64 Human Ethics and AI 66 Human-Centric Approach 67 Making Human-Centered AI Work 69 Summary 71 3. Monitoring + AI = Rx for Personal Health. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Prescription (Rx) for Personal Health 76 Three Realms Influencing Healthcare 78 Ambient Computing and Healthcare 81 Continuous Monitoring Using AI 83 Continuous Monitoring 84 Beeps, Chimes, Dings, and Dongs 85 Health Continuum 86 Application of IoT and AI to Medical Care 88 IoT and AI 88 Health Determinants and Big Data 92 Summary 93 4. Digital Transformation and AI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Digital Transformation of Healthcare 97 Path A: Creating Digital Operations and Processes 99 Path B: Building New Capabilities 100 Path C: Transforming Business Processes 101 Paths to the Digital Transformation of Healthcare 102 Digital Healthcare 102 AI Applied to Digital Healthcare 104 AI, Digitization, and Big Tech 105 Preventive and Chronic Disease Management 106 AI and Prevention 107 AI and Chronic Disease 108 AI and Mental Health 110 AI and Telemedicine 111 Medication Management and AI 113 Medication Adherence 114 iv | Table of Contents
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Digital Medication 115 AI and Digitization Applied to Administrative Tasks 117 Summary 119 5. An Uncomfortable Truth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Healthcare Waste 122 Healthcare Spend and AI 123 Treatment Decisions and AI 126 Administrative Costs 131 Administrative Processes and Waste 133 Job Security and AI 135 Clinician Time 136 Ambient Clinical Intelligence 137 AI Use in Diagnostic Imaging and Analysis 137 Summary 142 6. Emerging Applications in Healthcare Using AI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Improving Human Health 146 Improving Human Lives 147 Making Technology Work for Healthcare 148 Ambient Intelligence 148 From a Patient’s Perspective 151 From a Doctor’s Perspective 153 From a Hospital System’s Perspective 156 From an Insurer’s Perspective 160 Emerging Applications and Services 162 Coordination of Care Platform 163 Disease State Management Platform 164 Human to Machine Experience Services 165 Customer Journey Platform 166 Clinician Decision Support Tools 167 Ambient Intelligence Environments 167 Digital Twin Platform 168 Real-Time Healthcare 169 Internet of Behaviors 170 Summary 171 7. AI at Scale for Healthcare Organizations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173 Achieving AI at Scale 173 Transforming Healthcare 178 The Chasm 182 Invisible Engines—Healthcare Platforms 183 Table of Contents | v
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The Road to a Healthcare Platform 186 Ecosystems 190 Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) 191 Summary 191 Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195 vi | Table of Contents
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Preface The number of books describing artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, deep learning, natural language processing, and the full constellation of AI technologies could fill a library. Coupled with the ever-growing list of articles, videos, and blogs, there is no lack of content. Clinicians, computer scientists, technologists, physicians, philosophers, and journalists each tackle different AI issues and challenges. However, we couldn’t find a book that discussed AI from a medical doctor and a tech‐ nologist’s paired perspectives. This is a book that tracks the journey of a physician and a technologist working together, discussing AI’s opportunity while explaining AI for the consumption of a clinician, an IT worker, a user, an executive, or a business stakeholder. Our goal is for you to understand the possibilities for improvements in healthcare supercharged by artificial intelligence. While discussing this vast potential, we strove to maintain the awe of AI while grounding the reader in the reality of AI today. We hope that Chapter 1 will provide you with confidence that you understand the myth versus the reality. More impor‐ tantly, this first chapter seeks to familiarize you with the language of AI—what is a model, an algorithm, a neural network, and more—without your needing to brush up on linear algebra or computer science. Chapter 2 integrates human-centered design, with providers and technologists work‐ ing together to build smart systems to ensure that AI is used to do good. Chapter 3 helps the reader see how combining AI with sensing and monitoring, given the growth of intelligent objects, affords unparalleled opportunity for accelerating per‐ sonalized medicine. Chapter 4 describes digital transformation and AI, and the utility of AI for digital transformation. Several opportunities exist for using AI to reduce the amount of waste in healthcare and to reduce medical errors, as addressed in Chapter 5. Chapter 6 describes several AI solutions that, when realized, materially affect the quadruple aim of healthcare. Last, Chapter 7 provides a road map for how organizations realize AI’s benefits not just for a single instance but at scale. vii
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The state of healthcare is top of mind because it touches most aspects of our lives. The COVID-19 pandemic exposes the slow train wreck of dumb systems frustrating doctors, provider systems, and patients. There is no “silver bullet,” no quick fix, no one-size-fits-all solution, but the potential to transform healthcare with AI is now possible. We hope this book provides a blueprint for organizations in their journey to leverage AI to make healthcare better for everyone. Conventions Used in This Book The following typographical conventions are used in this book: Italic Indicates new terms, URLs, email addresses, filenames, and file extensions. O’Reilly Online Learning For more than 40 years, O’Reilly Media has provided technol‐ ogy and business training, knowledge, and insight to help companies succeed. Our unique network of experts and innovators share their knowledge and expertise through books, articles, and our online learning platform. O’Reilly’s online learning platform gives you on-demand access to live training courses, in-depth learning paths, interactive coding environments, and a vast collection of text and video from O’Reilly and 200+ other publishers. For more information, visit http://oreilly.com. How to Contact Us Please address comments and questions concerning this book to the publisher: O’Reilly Media, Inc. 1005 Gravenstein Highway North Sebastopol, CA 95472 800-998-9938 (in the United States or Canada) 707-829-0515 (international or local) 707-829-0104 (fax) We have a web page for this book, where we list errata, examples, and any additional information. You can access this page at https://oreil.ly/ai-first-healthcare. Email bookquestions@oreilly.com to comment or ask technical questions about this book. viii | Preface
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For news and information about our books and courses, visit http://oreilly.com. Find us on Facebook: http://facebook.com/oreilly Follow us on Twitter: http://twitter.com/oreillymedia Watch us on YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/oreillymedia Acknowledgments Thanks to Melissa Potter, our content development editor at O’Reilly Media, whose edits, suggestions, and thoughtful comments were spot on. She kept us on track, and her patience and insights throughout the process of writing this book were invalua‐ ble. We will miss our weekly meetings with Melissa. We are grateful to Arthur Johnson, our AI-First Healthcare copyeditor, who not only understood the topic and validated our research but also made the book immensely better. Special thanks are due to those who gave their time to review our manuscript. Their thoughtful comments made a huge contribution to this book: Garry Choy, Dominik Dahlem, Thomas Davenport, Carly Eckert, Jun Li, and Bharath Ramsundar. Kerrie Holley Working with Siupo on this project felt like being part of a dream team; her real-life perspective on clinical practices and challenges brought the technological future to life. Without the support of my wife, Melodie Holden Holley, who allowed me to work every weekend for a year, this book would not be possible. Her nonprofit work in women’s health in developing countries enlightened me on the many issues of health‐ care in underserved nations. Thank you to my kids—Kier Holley and Hugo Holley for their weekly support, Aliya Holley for her perpetual optimism, and Reece Holden for our thoughtful conversations. I hope this book provides my older son, Kier, with insights that will help him reach his goal of being a doctor. And thank you to my sis‐ ter Rita Olford, whose smile brightens a room even over Zoom; my niece Theressa; and my nephews Dion, Herbert, Howard, and Marcus. Thanks to Bethanie Collins for sharing her story. Thanks to my colleagues, who continue to enlighten me on AI and more: Dr. Garry Choy, Dominik Dahlem, PhD, Sanjeeva Fernando, Steve Graham, Galina Grunin, Ravi Kondadadi, Dan McCreary, Mark Megerian, Dima Rekesh, PhD, Dr. Vernon Smith, and Julie Zhu. Preface | ix
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Thank you to Fei-Fei Li, PhD and Andrew Moore, PhD, who taught me more than they know in our interactions discussing AI and healthcare. Last, a dedication to my childhood mentor and educator, Sue Duncan, and her life’s work at the Sue Duncan Children’s Center in Chicago. And a dedication to my late brother and sister, Laurence and Lynette Holley, whom I miss every day. Siupo Becker I would like to express my deepest thanks to Kerrie Holley for asking me to partner with him on the creation of this book. You have been and continue to be a phenom‐ enal friend and colleague. Kudos and thanks to Melissa Potter, our content development editor, without whom this book would not have come into being. Thank you to my husband, Tom, for your support during this time, and to Florinda and Neal Deloya, who kept our entire household running so that I could focus on this work. And last but not least, thank you, kind reader, for your interest in the rapidly developing field of AI in healthcare. I wish you all the best. x | Preface
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Introduction Across the world, healthcare systems face enormous challenges, including lack of access, cost, waste, and an aging population. Pandemics like coronavirus (COVID-19) create severe strain on healthcare systems, resulting in shortages of per‐ sonal protective equipment, insufficient or inaccurate diagnostic tests, overburdened clinicians, and imperfect information sharing, to name a few important effects. More importantly, a healthcare crisis such as COVID-19 or the emergence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the 1980s highlights the stark reality of shortcom‐ ings in our health systems. We can reimagine and realize systems of care and back- office healthcare systems, as healthcare crises accentuate current problems, such as: • Inequitable access to healthcare • Insufficient on-demand healthcare services • High costs and lack of price transparency • Significant waste • Fragmented, siloed payer and provider systems • High business frictions and poor consumer experiences • Record keeping frozen since the 1960s • Slow adoption of technological advances • Burnout of healthcare providers, with the inability of clinicians to remain educa‐ ted on the newest advances in medicine based on the volume of data to be absorbed As we focus on these problems, we should recognize they are interdependent, giving the illusion of healthcare as being complex, when in reality healthcare is delivered through complex systems. That’s not to say providing excellent healthcare isn’t chal‐ lenging; however, we can build systems with less complexity, providing better care and making the healthcare system work for everybody. AI should be a crucial enabler xi
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of simplicity in healthcare and of building intelligent systems of care. The COVID-19 crisis shows the opportunities for applying AI, ranging from diagnostics and treat‐ ment decision support to contact tracing and the use of AI-driven tools. We think of AI as being synonymous with machine learning, and because of that, we don’t think about building complete AI systems accounting for processes, structures, experiences, and patterns of care delivery, which can be enabled by machine learning models, natural language processing, and more. Framing the problem this way helps us understand and set the stage for developing AI systems, not just machine learning models—for building simple, intelligent, robust systems that embody remarkable, frictionless experiences for all stakeholders in the healthcare ecosystem. That’s why we wrote this book, as a primer for employing AI in healthcare without a narrow focus on machine learning. Each chapter moves us incrementally closer to understanding how we make AI the center of everything we do in healthcare without focusing on AI, and this is what we mean by AI-First. A lot of what we discuss is both ambitious and aspirational but also realistic. There is no magical solution or technology such as AI that fixes healthcare, just like there isn’t a single technology solving all problems in banking, retail, automotive, tech, or any other industry. Existing healthcare systems are enormously complex, and multiple attempts to revamp their structure and function have failed. Repairing com‐ plex healthcare systems may not be the answer; instead, we propose rethinking how we build production-ready tools, experiences, and intelligent systems using data that work for doctors, nurses, healthcare workers, patients, and care facilities. Today, in one process or one tool within one specialty, AI delivers value: finding can‐ cer, diagnosing eye diseases, identifying abnormal images, enabling early detection of the onset of Alzheimer’s or depression, and more. Think about the internet and the shift to web pages, and then the shift to mobility as we moved to apps. Now, with AI, we embrace natural human interface modalities such as voice. The experience of how people interface with machines should change along with the underlying systems. By applying AI to various situations/roles within healthcare, we create a more integrated and therefore less complex system for users, whether they are consumers, providers, or payers. There are some basic tenets to ground us: • AI systems improve every day, and continuously. • AI systems and tools may be the only way to accelerate the delivery of healthcare to the underserved. • AI systems will become easier to trust as they explain themselves and as user experience increases over time. xii | Introduction
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• AI systems will endow a single doctor with the experience of millions of doctors. • AI, like mobility, will be the way of life for children born after 2010. Each doctor’s mistakes and successes have to be learned by experience and eventually become part of the standard of care and best practices. Doctors learn from other doc‐ tors, from research studies, from drug and device companies marketing products, and from their successes and failures with their own patients. Each doctor’s mistake has to be discovered and actualized—sometimes to the detriment of their patients. This type of learning reflects human nature, and clinicians are not immune to the hard-wiring of our brains and learning systems. The problem is that this anecdotal experience leads to bias and limitations on the part of the provider. In fact, some physicians may inadvertently fool themselves into thinking a diagnosis is correct, or that a treatment works even though it’s contrary to evidence supported by studies or outcomes of thousands of patients, based on their own anecdotal/previous experi‐ ence. Sometimes a doctor is simply unaware of studies and evidence of new treatment care pathways or better diagnostic modalities. The current medical environment demands that physicians see as high a volume of patients as possible to maximize reimbursement. That leaves doctors little time to address secondary patient care tasks, let alone remain educated on the most recent advances in medicine. But doc‐ tors today have direct access to the experiences and best practices of thousands of cohorts; they don’t need to wait for best practices to be codified into standards of care. With AI, we can change this calculus even more and move at a faster scale than a single doctor or institution could on their own. The era of a doctor touting that “in my experience, this treatment works” has passed; instead, they should be saying, “My experience plus the experiences of hundreds of thousands of patients, fellow doctors, and clinical studies give me confidence in pur‐ suing this treatment path.” But how would a doctor have at their disposal, at their fin‐ gertips, the knowledge of hundreds of thousands of clinical studies, the experiences of hundreds of thousands of patient treatment pathways, and the collective experience of thousands and thousands of doctors? This requires technology; it requires AI. As humans, clinicians are subject to cognitive and cultural biases, but we can minimize and maybe even eliminate the impacts of such biases within AI by providing a tech‐ nological equalizer in the knowledge base of providers. AI can evolve to deliver best practices, cumulative knowledge, and the experiences of hundreds of thousands of doctors to the doorstep of any doctor more swiftly than any previous technology. But for this reality to materialize, AI needs to be embedded in our entire healthcare ecosystem, becoming as ubiquitous as electricity, so that it can be used and expanded to lift the practices and skills of every medical professional. This is what we mean when we use the term AI-First. For AI to truly drive solutions for the most pressing problems, we have to think about how to develop holistic, intel‐ ligent systems—AI systems, not just machine learning models. We must think about Introduction | xiii
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the structures and processes, which include patterns of diagnostics, treatments, and care delivery, that can be enabled by machine learning, computer vision, natural lan‐ guage processing, ambient computing, and more. Our AI-First journey starts with a chapter describing AI and ends with a chapter describing how to make AI a reality in healthcare at scale: Chapter 1, Myths and Realities of AI To understand what AI-First means, we must first understand what AI is and what it is not. We must explore the myths and realities of AI and understand the art of what’s possible. Most tales have some threads of truth, but we describe them as myths because they are either false or misleading. AI and machine learn‐ ing are used synonymously and interchangeably, and this can be good and bad. Machine learning is critical to the success of building AI systems, but an AI sys‐ tem can be a lot more than a collection of machine learning models. Computers getting better at tasks previously done only by humans does not mean machines are getting smarter and smarter, moving toward or even beyond human intelli‐ gence. It does mean, however, that we have the tools to build intelligent systems. Chapter 2, Human-Centered AI The conversation around machines surpassing human intelligence is both nuanced and more philosophical than science-based. The dark and dystopian views of AI taking over the world or replacing doctors cause us to lose sight of what we can do today. The real threat is not superintelligent machines or AI; the threat comes from dumb systems. Dumb systems often create friction, are typi‐ cally designed with weak user interfaces, and frequently promote a lack of intero‐ perability. Today, the evidence is overwhelming that superior results are obtained through thoughtful pairing of humans and machines. We can use human- centered AI to usher in a new era of healthcare in which access is improved, pro‐ viding everyone the opportunity to live healthier lives. Chapter 3, Monitoring + AI = Rx for Personal Health The opportunity for people to play a more significant role in their healthcare has never been greater thanks to the proliferation of personal health gadgets, intelli‐ gent medical devices, and smart wearables with sensors that monitor people’s vital signs. Infuse these technologies with AI and combine them with sensory- abundant ambient spaces, and a prescription emerges for improving personal health. Invisible computing is emerging, as we now see AI in our everyday lives, such as in the Apple Watch, which allows you to look at your heartbeat to check for an irregular rhythm that may be AFib (atrial fibrillation, a risk factor for stroke). This will expand to more ordinary things, like your toothbrush taking saliva samples and alerting you to changes that might indicate you are at risk for metabolic disease or infectious disease. The arrival of smart and ambient spaces xiv | Introduction
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in our homes and places of work creates a future in which noninvasive technol‐ ogy married with AI becomes a tool, a prescription for keeping people healthy. Chapter 4, Digital Transformation and AI The delivery of care should be transparent to all constituents in the healthcare ecosystem, and access to services should be coordinated with all parties in real time. Back-office systems such as claims and prior authorizations should operate like other industries, in near real time or in real time. Real-time healthcare must be the norm, not the exception, such that outcomes are immediate, and prior authorizations behave the same as credit card authorizations, operating in sec‐ onds for the vast number of transactions. Digital healthcare begins and thrives with people using invisible engines that they helped design and that undergo continuous improvement based on clinician and patient experiences. This requires digital platforms, the kind we see with companies born in the internet and cloud eras. Adoption of AI and accompanying technologies can make this a reality. Digitization requires understanding and adopting AI, not just machine learning models. Chapter 5, An Uncomfortable Truth An uncomfortable truth must be addressed in today’s healthcare: the enormous amount of waste. Suboptimal consumer outcomes from clinician visits should and can be improved with AI. Evolving to a human/machine-based healthcare system in which agency is solely in the hands of people, not “Dr. Algorithm” or “AI Doctor,” will dramatically improve patient outcomes. AI and technology must be ever present, though invisible, to reduce errors and waste. There is evidence of the value AI brings in reducing waste in healthcare; today, AI is used largely to detect fraud but can also be applied to identify and reduce waste in other aspects of healthcare. This chapter examines how leveraging AI can facilitate the solu‐ tions that improve efficiency and reduce waste. Chapter 6, Emerging Applications in Healthcare Using AI Applications for healthcare sit in the front office and are often visible to consum‐ ers or patients; they live in our pockets via smart mobile devices, we wear them, and they live in the back offices of payers, insurers, and healthcare service pro‐ viders. AI is upending all of these application types, and new application types are emerging, some of them situational applications with short lives. All of these application types must be embraced with an eye toward making healthcare oper‐ ate in real time, enabling points of care to start with the patient when necessary, and enabling healthcare to be ubiquitous and on-demand. This chapter explores these new and emerging application types. Introduction | xv
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Chapter 7, AI at Scale for Healthcare Organizations Making the promises of AI come alive will quickly become an order of magni‐ tude more complicated than our shift to mobility was, for a number of reasons. The process will start, just as it did with mobility, with our recognizing that we must embrace a new modality and a new type of application. Every organization’s journey will be different, and this chapter provides a prescriptive approach to getting started, whether the organization is big or massive. Summary The adoption and value of AI implementations are shaped less by the intrinsic attributes of AI technologies and more by the economics of investing in innovations that make healthcare better. It’s not so much about what AI can do for you or me but about the specific benefits or transformations to be achieved through investment in AI. AI-First is not about the investment in AI but more about why this general- purpose technology, AI, should be seen as a horizontal enabling layer for the business of healthcare. AI integration into healthcare is harder than it looks, especially when we seek to reconfigure care systems, rather than just augmenting existing systems and making predictions with machine learning models. This is a time to reimagine how we do healthcare, and to begin a transformation of the healthcare system, with AI at its core. xvi | Introduction
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CHAPTER 1 Myths and Realities of AI Pamela McCorduck, in her book Machines Who Think (W. H. Freeman), describes AI as an “audacious effort to duplicate in an artifact” what all of us see as our most defin‐ ing attribute: human intelligence. Her 1979 book provides a fascinating glimpse into early thinking about AI—not using theorems or science, but instead describing how people came to imagine its possibilities. With something so magical and awe- inspiring as AI, it’s not hard to imagine the surrounding hyperbole. This chapter hopes to maintain the awe but ground it in reality. Stuart Russell, a computer scientist and one of the most important AI thinkers of the 21st century, discusses the past, present, and future of AI in his book Human Compat‐ ible (Viking). Russell writes that AI is rapidly becoming a pervasive aspect of today and will be the dominant technology of the future. Perhaps in no industry but health‐ care is this so true, and we hope to address the implications of that in this book. For most people, the term artificial intelligence evokes a number of attributed proper‐ ties and capabilities—some real, many futuristic, and others imagined. AI does have several superpowers, but it is not a “silver bullet” that will solve skyrocketing health‐ care costs and the growing burden of illness. That said, thoughtful AI use in health‐ care creates an enormous opportunity to help people live healthier lives and, in doing so, control some healthcare costs and drive better outcomes. This chapter describes healthcare and technology myths surrounding AI as a prelude to discussing how AI- enhanced apps, systems, processes, and platforms provide enormous advantages in quality, speed, effectiveness, cost, and capacity, allowing clinicians to focus on people and their healthcare. A lot of the hype accompanying AI stems from machine learning models’ perfor‐ mance compared to that of people, often clinicians. Papers and algorithms abound describing machine learning models outperforming humans in various tasks ranging from image and voice recognition to language processing and predictions. This raises 1
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the question of whether machine learning (ML) diagnosticians will become the norm. However, the performance of these models in clinical practice often differs from their performance in the lab; machine learning models built on training and test data sometimes fail to achieve the same success in areas such as object detection (e.g., identifying a tumor) or disease prediction. Real-world data is different—that is, the training data does not match the real-world data—and this causes a data shift. For example, something as simple as variation in skin types could cause a model trained in the lab to lose accuracy in a clinical setting. ML diagnosticians may be our future, but additional innovation must occur for algorithm diagnosticians to become a reality. The hyperbole and myths that have emerged around AI blur the art of what’s possible with AI. Before discussing those myths, let’s understand what we mean by AI. Descriptions of AI are abundant, but the utility of AI will be more important than a definition. Much of this book will explore the service of AI. We provide clarity in helping with understanding the context and meaning of the term AI. A brief look at its origin provides a useful framework for understanding how AI is understood and used today. AI Origins and Definition Humans imagining the art of what’s possible with artificial life and machines has been centuries in the making. In her 2018 book Gods and Robots (Princeton University Press), Adrienne Mayor, a research scholar, paints a picture of humans envisioning artificial life in the early years of recorded history. She writes about ancient dreams and myths of technology enhancing humans. A few thousand years later, in 1943, two Chicago-area researchers introduced the notion of neural networks in a paper describing a mathematical model. The two researchers—a neuroscientist, Warren S. McCulloch, and a logician, Walter Pitts—attempted to explain how the complex deci‐ sion processes of the human brain work using math. This was the birth of neural net‐ works, and the dawn of artificial intelligence as we now know it. Decades later, in a small town along the Connecticut River in New Hampshire, a pla‐ que hangs in Dartmouth Hall, commemorating a 1956 summer research project, a brainstorming session conducted by mathematicians and scientists. The names of the founding fathers of AI are engraved on the plaque, recognizing them for their contri‐ butions during that summer session, which was the first time that the words “artificial intelligence” were used; John McCarthy, widely known as the father of AI, gets credit for coining the term. The attendees at the Dartmouth summer session imagined artificial intelligence as computers doing things that we perceive as displays of human intelligence. They dis‐ cussed ideas ranging from computers that understand human speech to machines that operate like the human brain, using neurons. What better display of intelligence 2 | Chapter 1: Myths and Realities of AI